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Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.
- Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting
- Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast
- Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices
- Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face
- Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process
Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.
- Sales Rank: #1109778 in Books
- Published on: 2010-06-08
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.00" w x 6.30" l, 1.00 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 272 pages
From the Inside Flap
The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
Business forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You're almost always wrong—except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast—and you get beat up routinely for your "lousy forecasts." Against this framework, The Business Forecasting Deal turns forecasting on its head. Instead of focusing solely on statistical modeling and forecast accuracy—accuracy being largely determined by the nature of the demand you are trying to forecast—Michael Gilliland turns your attention to forecasting process efficiency and effectiveness. His unique perspective, utilizing the emerging method of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis, shows how organizations can meaningfully improve their performance by eliminating the "worst practices" that now sabotage and confound their forecasting efforts.
While predicting the future is a very difficult thing, there is no shortage of articles, books, consultants, and even software vendors willing to tell you (or sell you) their version of forecasting best practices. However, many of these purported "best practices" do not work—they fail to make the forecast any better. Through FVA analysis—a method that has been employed at several major corporations including Intel, AstraZeneca, Cisco, and Yokohama Tire (Canada)—The Business Forecasting Deal shows how to identify the waste and inefficiencies in the typical forecasting process. By eliminating those (surprisingly common) practices that make the forecast worse, FVA analysis is helping companies get better forecasts with less effort and less cost.
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to a wide variety of business forecasting problems. It illustrates a new way to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, all within the internal political arena in which real-life forecasting is conducted. While there is no magic formula to guarantee perfect forecasts, this book will change your perspective—and improve your success—in dealing with the problems of business forecasting.
From the Back Cover
Praise for The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
"Mike Gilliland's new book is a breath of fresh air. It's simple, straightforward, easy to read, insightful—and loaded with solid, practical advice on how to improve the forecasting process in your company."
—From the Foreword by Tom Wallace
"Into a market awash in forecasting texts, each promising to be the panacea for supply chain inefficiencies and sales shortfalls, Mike Gilliland's The Business Forecasting Deal is a refreshingly objective assessment of the real costs and benefits of forecast process improvement. Above all, his book cuts to what should be at the heart of all our efforts: are the expenditures in time and money we are making in forecast improvement truly resulting in incremental profitability?"
—Jonathon Karelse, National Marketing Manager, Yokohama Tire (Canada) Inc.
"A great book, unique as well. Mike Gilliland is the first person with a mission to bring 'worst practices' into the open so that forecasters can see what they are doing wrong and the price they are paying for it. Nothing can happen unless they recognize their problems, for which Mike has made a tremendous contribution."
—Dr. Chaman Jain, St. John's University; Editor, Journal of Business Forecasting
"Mike Gilliland has captured the key issues in this book, and his work, particularly on volatility and Forecast Value Added, is to be applauded."
—Martin Joseph, Managing Director, Rivershill Consulting Ltd.
"I have used Mike Gilliland's Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis for the past year, and it has made a big difference in understanding what steps in our forecasting process are worthwhile and what steps need to be improved or eliminated. His advice on the proper way to present FVA to upper management has helped gain the confidence of the division in this analysis."
—Dave Wehling, Manager, Marketing Requirements, International Division,
The Toro Company
"Mike Gilliland provides a unique perspective on the forecasting discipline. He presents sound quantitative lessons paired with pragmatic, realistic, and effective methodologies for applying his techniques. This book is an excellent and perhaps mandatory addition to the repertoire of demand managers and supply chain management professionals alike."
—Emily Rodriguez, Supply Chain Program Manager, Intel Corporation
About the Author
MICHAEL GILLILAND is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu-mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight, and APICS magazine, and was a columnist on "Worst Practices in Business Forecasting" for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master's degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com/forecasting.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
On balance a good practical read
By John Chase
One of the very few forecasting books that steps back from examining algorithms and tools and considers the forecasting process itself.
Gilliland's greatest contribution is probably the observation that the accuracy of the forecast is largely dictated by the nature of the sales pattern. The best way to improve the forecast accuracy is to make the sales pattern more predictable - or more correctly stop making it unpredictable through peverse incentives and practices.
The FVA Forecast Value Added measure is also a really good common-sense measure.
I felt that he lost his way a little in the section on Organizational realignment but otherwise the book is a great read for any forecasting practitioner
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Great Book
By Terry
I've been involved in Forecasting as a Demand Planner and an implementation consultant for about 20 years. Over that time, I've probably read 20-30 books on the subject.
This book is by far and away my favorite. I've been through it a couple of times. It's very practical and honest (not much vendor or consultant speak).
If you want good understanding of Demand Planning, how to do it as efficiently as possible and what you can expect from your systems, you should read this book.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
So so book
By Xiaojie Zhou
It is just okay book for me. Not any great insight or something that I don't already know. Sorry to give a bad review.
See all 8 customer reviews...
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